Middle EastAnalysis

Israel fears a US deal with Iran will be limited to curbing nuclear programme

Netanyahu to press Trump on restricting Tehran’s ballistic missile threat

A slow exposure image shows ballistic missiles above Jerusalem last June. Photograph: EPA
A slow exposure image shows ballistic missiles above Jerusalem last June. Photograph: EPA

Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu flies to Washington on Tuesday for a hastily arranged White House meeting on Wednesday with US president Donald Trump amid Israeli fears that talks with Iran will be limited to curbing Tehran’s nuclear programme.

“The prime minister believes that any negotiations must include restrictions on ballistic missiles and an end to support for the Iranian axis,” the prime minister’s office said, in a statement announcing the meeting.

As the US military build-up in the region continues, Israel and the US are maintaining close security and intelligence co-operation in advance of a possible return to war.

Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, was in Israel last week to hear Israeli concerns and Netanyahu hopes he can convince Trump to insist that any deal with Iran will also reduce Iran’s missile threat.

During the 12-day war in June, Iran launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and about 1,100 drones at Israel. The attacks killed 32 people and wounded more than 3,000 in Israel. The Iranian government said more than 1,000 people were killed during the conflict.

Iran’s missile capability was significantly downgraded during the June war and Israel estimates that Tehran still possesses roughly 1,800 missiles and 60–80 launchers. Israeli defence officials recently told their US counterparts that Iran’s ballistic missile programme represents an existential threat and that Israel is prepared to act unilaterally, if necessary.

According to security sources, Israeli intentions to dismantle Iran’s missile capabilities and production infrastructure have been conveyed in recent top-level contacts with US officials.

“We told the Americans we will strike alone if Iran crosses the red line we set on ballistic missiles,” said a source, adding that the threshold has not yet been reached, but Israel is closely monitoring developments inside Iran.

Netanyahu’s central message to Trump will be that Iranian missiles pose an existential threat to Israel, and that, given the US armed forces’ current military build-up, an unprecedented window of opportunity exists to remove the threat.

Netanyahu is also expected to make clear at the White House meeting that Israel is willing to assist the United States in any military action it chooses, arguing that Israeli military action would be a significant force multiplier for the Americans.

But Israel is aware that significant counterpressure is also being exerted by Turkey, Qatar and other Gulf states, and also from elements within the make America great again movement, who prefer an agreement over war.

After weighing the arguments from both sides, Trump will consider the scope of concessions the Iranian leadership is willing to offer and if it grants him enough leeway to claim a diplomatic victory that can prevent a likely devastating war.