There has been much discussion around the role of the two-pointer in eliminating big leads, in particular in the final moments of games. But after three rounds of the league, we can say one thing with certainty: don’t let Jack Flynn take a two-point shot when Meath are a point down in the last minute.
The point he kicked against Cavan in Round 2 to put Meath in front for once and for all was a brilliant score, using Jordan Morris’ run as a decoy to buy himself room for the shot (I can imagine Morris paraphrasing Moe Green in The Godfather – “I don’t make decoy runs for you, you make decoy runs for me”).
For him to follow up with an even better effort with time almost up against Louth in the very next round suggests an iron-clad confidence and bags of talent to go with it. It’s not like Louth weren’t forewarned. They just gave him a small pocket of space and he was good enough to capitalise. Against Derry, in their only game so far that didn’t require his last-minute heroics, he kicked 0-7, so it’s been a productive spring for him.
If you’re not Jack Flynn, there are considerations to be taken into account if you’re a point down and you have possession in the last minute of a game. Trying to work the ball close to goal for a “gimme” score still feels like it might be the best option.
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If Flynn misses either of those shots, then that’s the first question he would be asked. A draw is not a bad result. Flynn’s points might have been brilliant, but is it playing the percentages?
There are other wrinkles thrown up by the two-pointer that we’re only now getting used to. Roscommon’s game against Armagh on Sunday was an interesting case study. Armagh trailed by four points in the last three minutes, playing with a gale.
They tried on a number of occasions to work a goal chance, before Greg McCabe’s late goal attempt flew over the bar in the dying seconds to reduce the margin to three.
But would they have been better off getting an early shot off for two and then leaving themselves even 40 seconds to try and get a second one to level the game? Trying to score a goal, when they had managed only one in the previous two games and 67 minutes of this one, may not have been the percentage play.
They were going to need at least two scores anyway just to get a draw, so why not play as fast as you can, try and get the two-pointer and get yourself within a kick.
Kerry were a point up and in possession against Galway in the 68th minute in Tralee the previous evening. When presented with an easy point-scoring opportunity, Dylan Casey knocked it over and Galway got the ball back with two minutes left on the clock. It was the correct decision given how difficult the conditions were and how Paul Faloon was refereeing the game. Faloon did an exceptional job of letting the game flow, despite the terrible conditions, and he was letting plenty of physical contact go.
One ill-judged wander into contact for Kerry in that context could have been fatal. Kerry had also turned over the ball four times in the previous eight minutes from which Galway had mined 2-3. So Kerry saw a chance to widen the gap to two points and they went for it.
But if you were to put yourself in Galway’s shoes in that moment, there is an argument which says Kerry did exactly what you wanted them to do. Galway were chasing the ball, but that is tiring, thankless work. There’s something to be said for Galway just allowing someone score in that situation. Push out, but make sure you don’t concede a goal. Give away the point attempt from 25 yards out.
Galway can do nothing without the ball. If you allow Kerry to score, you give yourself possession and enough time to do something with it. Galway won the kick-out after Casey’s point and Shane McGrath capped a brilliant personal performance with the two-pointer they needed to force the draw.
This is not unprecedented. In American football the idea of letting the opposition score if they are camped on your goal-line with 80 seconds left, or less, is well ingrained. They’ll probably score anyway. They can either do that with enough time left for you to hit back, or you can put up a defiant defensive stand which will only rob you of the time you need to score up the other end.
So, you let them score and you get the ball back. It’s risky, but it gives you a chance. I’m pretty sure Galway didn’t do that in Tralee, but I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see a team do it later in the year, particularly on big pitches on dry days when turnovers are that much more unlikely.
Each team, intercounty and club alike, are drawing up plans for the best way to handle the end of games. There are three score values now, and each one offers a different set of equations to factor in. The numbers behind what would’ve been called the percentage play two years ago may no longer add up.
