Four years was the duration of the fight against the Nazis in which Ukraine under German occupation lost 10 million of its people. Four years ago today marks the anniversary of the start of what Vladimir Putin dubbed a “Special Military Operation”, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moscow expected its forces to take control of the country within 10 days, but, following an ignominious early rout outside Kyiv, it now holds just 20 per cent of it.
Confirmed figures are not available, but the cost has been enormous. On some estimates, nearly two million soldiers on both sides are dead or wounded. Russia may have lost up to 325,000 dead, according to estimates – outstripping its ability to recruit.
The Ukrainian toll is estimated to be at least 100,000 troops and civilians killed, though some experts put the figure higher. Millions have been displaced from their homes. Civilians have been bombed, frozen, and, when under Russian occupation, jailed, shot and raped. Tens of thousands of children have been exiled to Russia. Lviv is a world capital of amputations and prosthetics – some 100,000 Ukrainians have lost limbs.
Yet, for three years the 750-kilometre front line remains largely frozen. The war is in bloody gridlock. By the end of 2022, Ukraine had liberated around half the land seized by Russia during the initial stage of the invasion. Since then, Kyiv has managed to decimate the Russian Black Sea Fleet, largely deny Russia air access, and is also now increasingly bringing Putin’s invasion home to Russia with long-range drone and missile strikes deep inside the Russian Federation.
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Russia’s apparently overwhelming superiority in manpower and military resources did not bring about a swift victory, but neither have the resolve of the Ukrainian people and the Western aid they have received proved enough to stop Russia’s aggression. Holding the line is currently the best either side can hope for.
Ukraine, has, however, created a highly motivated and innovative military. Putin’s fatal miscalculation – one shared by his admirer Donald Trump – has been to underestimate Ukrainians’ remarkable resilience. He has also overestimated his own army’s military superpower pretensions.
The most recent round of talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States in Geneva concluded recently without a breakthrough. After four years of attrition there is no end in sight, with neither side capable of delivering a decisive victory, and the US pressuring Ukraine to accept territorial concessions. Europe’s continued support – political, military and economic – is more vital than ever. And the outrageous attempt by Hungary to block both a €90 billion EU loan and another round of sanctions against Russia is deeply regrettable. The EU must find a way to deliver ongoing support.
