The European Union faces major challenges to remain effective in a changed world order. In transatlantic relations it faces a hostile US administration, an aggressive Russia in Europe and an increasingly assertive China. These are its diplomatic, security and defence challenges. Added to these are equally pertinent questions related to innovation and competitiveness. National politics sharply constrains these choices; the EU must uphold its own distinctive regulatory, welfare and green priorities to retain the public support it needs to make progress.
If the EU is to express its own interests and values effectively in such a turbulent world it requires greater capacity for strategic action independently of the United States. Hostile or unilateral US moves on Greenland, Ukraine, Gaza and Iran confirm the diagnosis and expose the difficulties Europeans face in realising it. To remain an effective actor in this discordant world the EU must develop the hard power resources in security and defence previously provided by the US through Nato. Convincing national electorates to prioritise such spending is difficult, yet polling clearly shows most voters want change.
The EU’s challenges are just as much economic as political. Its competitiveness and regulatory heft are no longer what they were during the open globalisation years, urgently needing adaptation to the new world of industrial policies and strategic preferences. This diagnosis is set out clearly in the Draghi report on high technology, energy, biotech and industrial sectors; but action to implement these accepted recommendations has been far too slow by the European Commission and the member states. It is arguable who is most to blame. But there is an opportunity to address them constructively at the EU “leaders’ retreat” tomorrow.
Ireland, like all member states, faces choices in addressing this agenda and trade-offs in terms of national priorities. The meeting looks set to focus on a French-led “buy European” approach, where Ireland – along with Germany and others – has reservations. And Ireland will be under pressure during its EU presidency to progress the competitiveness agenda and capital markets union. Both could also prove contentious.
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Decision-making within the EU combines qualified majority and unanimous voting, which may need to be adapted to cope with the scale of change it faces. Greater use of enhanced cooperation and flexible integration could lead to a larger EU better able to sustain Ukrainian and Balkan memberships. These potentially contentious challenges require imagination, firm leadership and courageous politics if voters are to agree.
The Irish EU presidency from July faces a daunting task in helping manage and progress such a challenging agenda for this new world order.
